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As KOSPI Hits Record Highs, Retail Investors Rotate Into Gold & Silver ETFs
AI Prompt 2025. 10. 19. 21:35As KOSPI Hits Record Highs, Retail Investors Rotate Into Gold & Silver ETFs
※ While the Korean stock market keeps printing fresh all-time highs, retail investors are selling KOSPI and buying gold and silver ETFs. A mix of short-term rally fatigue, the U.S. Fed’s rate-cut cycle resumption, and signals of quantitative tightening (QT) ending are boosting demand for safe havens. 😅
Even as the domestic equity market sprints toward new peaks, retail money is heading the other way. Investors are taking profits and rotating into gold and silver ETFs, prioritizing risk defense.
According to the Korea Exchange, between October 1–17 retail investors net bought over KRW 500 billion of gold ETFs.
The ACE KRX Gold Spot ETF led with KRW 174.3 billion in net purchases, followed by TIGER KRX Gold Spot (KRW 136.1 billion) and KODEX Gold Futures (KRW 132.3 billion). All three ranked within the top-10 retail net-buy list this month.
Overseas gold exposure also attracted funds: SOL International Gold ETF saw KRW 60.5 billion in retail net buying.
Notably, investors bought TIGER KRX Gold Spot for 10 consecutive sessions, accumulating KRW 121.9 billion—the second-largest 10-day cumulative net buy among all retail favorites after TIGER U.S. S&P 500 (KRW 139.6 billion).
A similar pattern is visible in silver. Retail investors net bought KRW 62.1 billion of KODEX Silver Futures (H) this month. With spot silver hitting a record high above $54/oz on the 16th, many view silver as relatively attractive versus gold after its rapid rise.
Since last September, individuals have net sold more than KRW 16.5 trillion of KOSPI, including KRW 6.164 trillion sold this month (as of the 17th). With the market surging since last month, the shift into gold—a classic safe haven—is widely seen as a response to short-term overextension.
The chase-buy impulse strengthened as gold spiked to fresh records last week. Prices have risen rapidly since the Fed resumed its rate-cut cycle in late August, stoking inflation-hedge demand. On the 14th, dovish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell—hinting QT may be nearing an end—added fuel. On the 16th (local time), international gold topped $4,300/oz for the first time, setting a new all-time high.
As gold soars, interest in silver is also building. While silver joined gold in pushing to record territory, its relative valuation is drawing attention from investors seeking catch-up potential.
Jinyoung Choi, analyst at Daishin Securities, noted:
“Gold tends to rise as policy-rate cut expectations build, while silver outperforms when liquidity expands. With Powell hinting at the end of QT and China considering a reserve-requirement cut, the pace of liquidity expansion could accelerate, which is a favorable backdrop for silver.”
🌎 U.S. Market Impact Analysis
| Rising gold & silver | ✅ Positive | Tailwind for gold miners, royalty/streamers, and commodity ETFs (e.g., Newmont, Barrick, Wheaton Precious). |
| Weaker USD | ✅ Neutral to positive | Rate-cut expectations → softer dollar → support for commodities. |
| Tech/growth | ⚠️ Cautious | Some rotation from risk assets into havens could prompt short-term consolidation. |
| Energy & materials ETFs | ✅ Positive | Benefit from risk-on/off regime shifts tied to commodity bid. |
In the U.S., rate-cut expectations can spark near-term pullbacks in the S&P 500 even as they set up potential valuation re-ratings longer term. In the short run, flows often pivot into haven ETFs (gold, USD, short-duration Treasuries).
🇰🇷 Korean Market Impact Analysis
| Gold/Silver ETFs & ETNs | ⬆️ Bullish | Strong retail demand and higher turnover. |
| Refining/Chemicals | ⬆️ Mildly positive | Commodity-linked earnings support. |
| Semiconductors | ⚠️ Neutral | Foreign buying may persist, but domestic retail outflows can mute momentum. |
| Consumer/Domestic plays | ⚠️ Softer | Safe-haven rotation tempers inflows to defensives/domestics. |
Korea currently shows a clear “index up on foreign/inst’l buying—retail selling” profile. Historically that can mark mid-cycle peaks, yet today’s mix of rate cuts + continuing liquidity keeps the door open to a “dip-then-rebound” scenario.
📊 Investor Checklist
- Rate-path calendar: Watch the November FOMC & December minutes for clues on QT timing and the depth of cuts.
- ETF flow tracking: Monitor top retail net-buy ETFs domestically and abroad (gold/silver).
- Dollar Index (DXY): A decisive break below 104 would broaden upside for precious metals.
- China policy: Possible RRR cuts could reinforce silver’s liquidity-sensitive bid.
- KOSPI 3700 support: Gauge whether retail outflows morph into longer consolidation or stabilize.
❓ FAQ
Q1. Why are retail investors selling KOSPI when it’s rising?
A. Profit-taking after a rapid advance and a stronger preference for safe havens. Classic “late-rally caution” behavior.
Q2. How far can gold run?
A. As long as the cut cycle continues, upside remains. But after clearing $4,300/oz, be mindful of short-term pullbacks.
Q3. Is it too late to buy silver?
A. Silver has both industrial and precious characteristics; with liquidity expanding, there’s room left. Volatility is higher than gold, though.
Q4. Should I buy gold/silver ETFs now?
A. Consider staggered (dollar-cost) entries after a sharp rally. For Korea-listed ETFs, factor in KRW/USD effects.
Q5. Will KOSPI rebound after a pause?
A. If foreign inflows persist and the easing cycle advances, pullbacks can become buyable.