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Upbit Trading Volume Drops 81% in Three Months
※ Over the past three months, daily trading volume at Korea’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit, plunged by more than 80%.
With Bitcoin and major altcoins correcting over 10% from their peaks, investor sentiment has chilled rapidly.
Meanwhile, the KOSPI keeps setting new all-time highs, making it clear that market liquidity is moving “from coins to stocks,” a trend dubbed the “De-coin flow.” 😅
The heat in domestic and global crypto markets is cooling fast.
After dominating attention in the first half, Bitcoin and leading altcoins have collectively turned weaker in recent weeks.
The decline is pronounced in trading volume, indicating a sharp contraction in market liquidity itself.
According to crypto data provider CoinGecko, as of the 19th, Upbit’s average daily trading value stood at about USD 1.5 billion (KRW 2.1 trillion)—a drop of roughly 81% versus three months earlier.
During the same period, global crypto market capitalization shrank by more than USD 210 billion (about KRW 300 trillion).
💸 Major Coins Fall in Unison
Bitcoin broke to a record high above $126,000 in early October, but has since fallen more than 10%, hovering around $108,000.
Over the past week, Ethereum fell 5.7%, while Solana (-7.9%), XRP (-3%), and Dogecoin (-4.5%) also weakened.
Analysts cite the recent “largest-ever leverage liquidation” as a key trigger.
When China hinted at restricting rare-earth exports, the U.S. president suggested additional tariffs on China, reigniting U.S.–China trade tensions.
That shock sparked widespread liquidations in the derivatives market, eroding confidence across crypto.
🧊 Sentiment Freezes vs. Stocks Overheat
In sharp contrast to crypto’s chill, the Korean equity market keeps notching record highs.
As of the 22nd, average daily KOSPI turnover reached KRW 31.5 trillion, up over 10% year-on-year.
The index closed at 3,823.84, rising for five straight sessions.
This points to a clear money move: funds exiting crypto are flowing into stocks, especially semiconductors, AI, and financials.
Daishin Securities’ Lee Kyung-min noted that expectations for a conclusion to Korea–U.S. trade talks ahead of the APEC summit have been priced in, while domestic real-estate tax commentary from senior officials boosted risk appetite.
He characterized the current tape as a “De-coin → equity inflow” phase.
⚠️ Bearish Medium-Term Views Emerging
Some overseas strategists argue that crypto has already entered a medium-term downtrend.
John Glover, CIO at Redden, said Bitcoin appears to have completed a five-wave advance and entered a bear market that could last through late 2026, with potential downside toward $70,000–$80,000.
He cites Elliott Wave structure and historical post-halving reversals as evidence.
🌍 A Market in “Transition”
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Asset, says the market now shows a mix of panic selling, sidelining, and bottom-fishing—classic hallmarks of a transition phase.
He added that extremely low volumes can be a near-term bottom signal, but warned that unless macro uncertainty, rate path, and U.S.–China tensions abate, any rebound could be muted.
📊 U.S. & Korea Equity Analysis and Stock Ideas
🇺🇸 U.S. Equities
- Positives
- Outflows from crypto → inflows to tech/AI.
- Re-risking supports Nasdaq and S&P 500.
- Negatives
- If rate cuts are delayed, valuation pressure can re-emerge.
Suggested Names
| Semiconductors | NVIDIA (NVDA) | AI server demand intact; beneficiary of risk-on flows |
| Financials | Goldman Sachs (GS) | Trading/investment income leverage in risk-on regimes |
| Consumer | Amazon (AMZN) | Ongoing consumer resilience; earnings momentum |
| ETF | Invesco QQQ (QQQ) | Broad tech exposure during risk-on phases |
🇰🇷 Korea Equities
- Positives
- Foreign net buying may expand; semis & batteries lead.
- Potential KRW strength invites overseas inflows.
- Negatives
- Near-term fatigue and profit-taking after sharp rallies.
Suggested Names
| Semiconductors | Samsung Electronics (005930) | Cycle upturn and AI capex leverage |
| Batteries | EcoPro BM (247540) | Beneficiary of supply-chain reconfiguration |
| Financials | Shinhan Financial (055550) | Attractive dividends and stable earnings |
| IT/Platform | NAVER (035420) | AI/cloud growth with resilient fundamentals |
💡 Investment Insight
We’re clearly in a phase where money is rotating from crypto to equities.
Crypto appears to be in a post-spike correction, while stocks are entering a risk-on window.
Thus:
- Near term: Tilt toward equities; avoid fresh, aggressive crypto buys.
- Medium term: Consider staged re-entry into crypto aligned with the rate-cut timeline.
❓ FAQ
Q1. Is Upbit’s volume drop temporary?
A. Some of it is profit-taking, but with rate uncertainty still high, subdued volumes may persist for now.
Q2. Is it time to buy crypto?
A. Given high volatility, a cautious stance and higher cash buffer are advisable.
Q3. Why is money moving into stocks?
A. Stabilizing rates and improving earnings are reviving risk appetite.
Q4. Which sectors look attractive for Korean investors?
A. Semiconductors, EV batteries, AI, and financials are prime beneficiaries.
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