U.S. Inflation Eases… “Signs of Cooling”

U.S. Inflation Eases… “Signs of Cooling”

※ U.S. inflation rose more slowly than markets anticipated, signaling possible relief in price pressures.

In its Oct 24 (local time) release, the U.S. Department of Labor said the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year over year and 0.3% month over month.

The core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy—climbed 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, 0.1 percentage point below consensus on both bases. 😅

 

🏦 Signs That Inflation Is Calming

The print has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could move the timeline for rate cuts forward.

Analysts note that while consumption and employment remain sturdy, price pressure is moderating—raising the odds of a cut in December or early Q1 next year.
Particularly noteworthy: housing and services price growth cooled, suggesting easing risk of services inflation stickiness, a key concern for policymakers.

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💵 Dollar, Treasuries, and Rates

After the CPI release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the DXY dollar index softened modestly.

With the perception that the Fed has less reason to keep tightening, all three major U.S. indices—Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq—closed up around ~1%.

• 10-year U.S. Treasury: 4.11% → 3.97%
• DXY: 106.2 → 105.4
• Gold futures: rebounded to $4,120/oz

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🧮 Breakdown of the Print

CategoryYoYMoMKey Drivers

Headline CPI	+3.0%	+0.3%	Gasoline & shelter moderated
Core CPI (ex-food/energy)	+3.0%	+0.2%	Services & rents stabilized
Food	+2.4%	+0.3%	Softer dining-out inflation
Energy	+3.5%	+0.8%	Slower oil price momentum

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📈 Market Take — “Closer to a Soft Landing”

With inflation stabilizing, the U.S. economy looks nearer to the soft-landing mix of steady jobs + easing prices.

A chief economist at JPMorgan assessed:

“This CPI suggests progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
The risk of overtightening has diminished.”

Some caution remains that services inflation is still elevated and that aggressive rate cuts could risk a renewed overheating.

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💬 Macro Spillovers

• Consumer confidence: Potential improvement via better real income.
• Corporate margins: Lower funding costs can support profitability.
• Commodities: A softer dollar may tame oil/grain volatility.
• AI/semis capex: Easing rate headwinds could re-accelerate investment.

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💰 Investment View — U.S. & Korea Stock Ideas

🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks

TickerThesis

NVDA	AI infra cycle re-accelerates as capex resumes; semis demand rebounds
MSFT	Lower rates expand growth-stock multiples; AI monetization tailwinds
TSLA	EV financing burden eases; potential demand uplift
GS	Bond-market recovery and IPO pipeline reopening potential

🇰🇷 Korea Stocks

Name (Code)Thesis

Samsung Electronics (005930)	Risk-on sentiment → memory up-cycle sustains
SK hynix (000660)	Direct beneficiary of HBM3/AI server proliferation
LG Energy Solution (373220)	EV demand improves as rates stabilize
Kakao (035720)	Domestic ad recovery on better consumer sentiment

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📊 Overall Outlook

Inflation is at its most stable level since 2021, and the policy stance is likely to pivot from “end of tightening” to “gradual easing.”

That backdrop can fuel rallies led by growth, tech, and semiconductors, while reigniting investment across AI, cloud, EVs, and green infrastructure.

Korea should also benefit via export recovery and a softer dollar, supporting IT and battery names.

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❓ FAQ

Q1. When might the first rate cut occur?
→ Markets are pricing >70% probability in Q1 2025.

Q2. Is inflation “defeated”?
→ The trend is clearly easing, but a durable downtrend hinges on further services disinflation.

Q3. How should investors position now?
→ A risk-on tilt toward growth/semis is reasonable, while also watching dollar softness and gold near term.